Your Weekly Deep Dive into The World of Crypto

April 15, 2026 · 7 Min Read

GM, Readers!

Bitcoin just hit $74,901 in early Tuesday trading, a four-week high, as the U.S.-Iran ceasefire pushed oil below $95 and gave risk assets their first reason to rally since February. After 60+ days of record-shattering Extreme Fear on the Alternative.me index, the chart is finally pointing up.

But the mood stays cautious. Institutions are buying through ETFs ($1.1 billion in weekly inflows, a four-month high) while retail sentiment remains pinned in panic. Strategy signalled another massive Bitcoin purchase. Morgan Stanley launched the cheapest spot BTC ETF on the market. And Ether is quietly outperforming Bitcoin with a 41% surge in daily transactions. Here is what actually happened…

Bitcoin climbed to $74,901 early Tuesday, its highest since March 17, per Bloomberg. The U.S.-Iran ceasefire has held for a full week, pushing Brent crude from $112 to below $95 and removing the biggest macro headwind. Ether jumped 5% to $2,370, XRP held at $1.35 on $119.6 million in weekly ETF inflows, and $427 million in shorts were liquidated during the ceasefire announcement. Key level: $75,000 resistance. Break it, and $80K is in play.

Michael Saylor posted his signature acquisition tracker on Sunday with two words: "Think Bigger." Strategy confirmed via SEC 8-K on April 6 that it bought 4,871 BTC for $329.9 million (average $67,718) between April 1-5, bringing confirmed holdings to 766,970 BTC. Reports from April 13 indicate an additional purchase of roughly 13,927 BTC for $1 billion, bringing total holdings to approximately 780,897 BTC.

The company sits on $14.5 billion in unrealised losses at an average cost of $75,644 per coin, but needs only 2.05% annual BTC appreciation to cover STRC dividends. At this pace, 800,000 BTC before month-end is realistic.

Crypto ETFs pulled in $1.1 billion in net inflows last week, the strongest weekly demand since January. Year-to-date flows have turned positive at $2.3 billion after January-February bled $1.82 billion combined. BlackRock's IBIT led with $871 million. The Fear and Greed Index has sat in Extreme Fear for 60+ consecutive days (a record), yet institutional ETF buyers keep allocating. Full breakdown below in ETF Flow Watch.

Morgan Stanley's spot Bitcoin ETF ($MSBT) began trading on NYSE Arca at 0.14% annual fee, the lowest in the market, undercutting BlackRock's IBIT at 0.25%. With 16,000 financial advisors and $9.3 trillion in client assets, MSBT has a built-in distribution network no other Bitcoin ETF can match. The bank is also preparing direct crypto trading on E*Trade via Zerohash for Bitcoin, Ethereum, and Solana.

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The week ending April 11 delivered the strongest ETF inflow week since January. U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs absorbed $1.1 billion in net capital, led by BlackRock's IBIT at $871 million. Fidelity's FBTC added $98 million, Ark/21Shares pulled in $62 million, and Morgan Stanley's newly launched $MSBT attracted $42 million in its debut week. Grayscale's $GBTC was the lone notable outflow at $31 million.

YTD flows have turned positive at $2.3 billion, clawing back from $1.82 billion in combined January-February outflows. Total AUM sits at $93 billion, with IBIT commanding 59% market share. Cumulative inflows since January 2024 have surpassed $56 billion. Institutional allocators now account for 38% of total holdings.

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On Valentine's Day 2025, Argentine President Javier Milei posted the Solana contract address for a token called $LIBRA to his millions of followers on X. Within 40 minutes, the token surged over 2,000%, hitting a $4.6 billion market cap. Hours later, it crashed 96%. Eight insider wallets linked to the project extracted between $99 million and $107 million. Over 114,000 retail wallets recorded losses totalling $251 million, with 86% of all traders losing money, according to Nansen data.

The story keeps getting worse. The New York Times reported on April 7 that phone logs show seven calls between Milei and crypto lobbyist Mauricio Novelli on the night of the post. Prosecutors recovered a draft $5 million payment agreement from Novelli's phone, dated three days before launch. WhatsApp messages reference recurring payments to Milei going back to 2021. Milei deleted the post and claimed, "no connection whatsoever." He has not been charged but remains a person of interest in the federal investigation.

Behind $LIBRA is Hayden Mark Davis, a 28-year-old American crypto marketer whose firm, Kelsier Ventures, created the token on Solana. Davis met Milei at the Argentine presidential palace before the launch and was at a Dallas Ritz-Carlton hotel coordinating the operation on launch night while Novelli made the calls. Davis and connected wallets extracted roughly $100 million. He was also linked to the MELANIA meme coin. The U.S. SEC has opened a preliminary inquiry, Argentine prosecutors have initiated asset freezes, and a class-action lawsuit has been filed against Milei in New York.

Oil below $95 is the clearest macro catalyst for crypto in 2026. If the ceasefire holds past April 21 and gets extended, BTC above $80K is realistic. If talks collapse, BTC retests $65K.

The rally to $74,901 is encouraging, but the $75,000 resistance needs to break convincingly first. Whale distribution remains elevated, with large holders removing over 188,000 BTC in 30 days per CoinDesk data. Bloomberg's Mike McGlone is still calling for $10K. The bull and bear cases have never been further apart.

Polymarket gives 98% probability that the Fed will hold at 3.5% in April. Tariff-driven inflation has taken cuts off the table. Until the Fed pivots, the liquidity ceiling stays in place.

The Iran ceasefire is the biggest variable. The two-week window expires around April 21. If talks produce an extension, BTC challenges $80K. If they collapse, oil spikes and fear returns. BlackRock reports Q1 earnings on April 14, and IBIT flow data will set the tone.

Next week, watch for:

(1) Strategy's next 8-K filing should confirm the rumoured $1B purchase.

(2) The Clarity Act markup vote in late April will determine whether stablecoins can offer yield, directly impacting Circle and Coinbase.

(3) Watch Ether closely. If ETH breaks $2,500, altcoin season talk gets real.

(4) And IRS’s April 15 tax deadline could trigger short-term selling as holders liquidate to cover crypto tax bills.